This analysis will test for potential effects of high discharge events during the spawning and egg incubation period on the productivity of Kenai River Chinook and sockeye salmon populations. These events can be caused by rain storms, rain-on-snow events in particular, or glacial outburst floods (jokulhlaups). We plan to document A) historic changes in air temperature and precipitation, B) changes in Kenai River discharge patterns, and C) test for associations between high flow events and productivity of Chinook salmon and early-run and late-run sockeye salmon in the Kenai River, quantified using stock-recruit models. We may also investigate summer discharge patterns, which are strongly associated with the productivity of two Chinook populations in Interior Alaska. All data necessary for this project are publicly available, and have mostly been downloaded and compiled by Sveta Stuefer (temperature / precipitation), Horacio Toniolo (discharge), and Molly McCarthy (salmon escapement and age structure).
Contact Erik Schoen (eschoen@alaska.edu) for more information about this analysis.
